Decisions
SNAPSHOT · 09/02/2026, 10:42 PM UTCThe most recent Decision Engine output (Phase 4, ADR-015) and the opinions of every specialist that produced it. NO TRADE is the system's default state — never a failure signal.
No tradeNO_TRADE
09/03/2026, 11:42 PM UTCEURUSD-20260903T234216+0000
Confidence0%
Confidence calibrationNot calibrated
Data quality100%
Market regimeLow volatility
Macro biasShort
Technical biasLong
Expected horizonH1
Expected return—
Expected volatility0.00031
Expected cost0.00015
Expected edge—
Risk/reward—
Event risk—
Liquidity conditionThin
Invalidation level—
Critic vetoVETOED
Objection severity1.00
Expected return, expected edge and risk/reward are always null at this phase — no validated strategy exists to back a real number (see the "no_validated_edge_estimate_available" warning below).
Supporting models
regime_agentfed_agentecb_agent
Opposing models
price_action_agentmacro_agentstatistical_agent
Reasons for this decision
- Ensemble net score: -0.0042 (agreement 0.5, 6 agent(s), dominant regime LOW_VOLATILITY).
- 0 approved strateg(y/ies) on record — not enough backing to trade ("NO EDGE = NO TRADE").
- The Ensemble did not produce a tentative direction (no sufficient directional bias).
Warnings
- No validated return/edge estimate exists at this phase — expected return, expected edge and risk/reward remain null until a real strategy is approved.
Specialist Agents
regime_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionNo trade
Strength0.990
Advisory onlyNo
Reasons
- Dominant regime LOW_VOLATILITY (evidence 0.99).
- Low volatility: percentile 1.0%, level VERY_LOW.
session_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionNo trade
Strength0.500
Advisory onlyYes
Reasons
- OFF_HOURS session with THIN liquidity.
- Outside the main trading session (OFF_HOURS).
volatility_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionNo trade
Strength0.200
Advisory onlyYes
Reasons
- VERY_LOW volatility level (percentile 1.0%).
price_action_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionLong
Strength0.763
Advisory onlyNo
Reasons
- UP trend with strength 0.7625.
macro_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionShort
Strength0.232
Advisory onlyNo
Reasons
- Relative USD vs. EUR strength score: 0.1323.
- Monetary policy differential favors USD (agrees with direction: Yes).
- 8 high-impact event(s) on the near horizon.
fed_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionNo trade
Strength0.000
Advisory onlyNo
Reasons
- Fed hawkish/dovish score: 0.5 (policy direction: HOLDING).
ecb_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionNo trade
Strength0.000
Advisory onlyNo
Reasons
- ECB hawkish/dovish score: 0.4 (policy direction: HOLDING).
event_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionNo trade
Strength0.000
Advisory onlyYes
Reasons
- No imminent event.
statistical_agentMOCK
ApplicableYes
DirectionShort
Strength0.057
Advisory onlyNo
Reasons
- Weighted multi-timeframe score: -0.0573 (5 timeframe(s) contributing).
- Experimental statistical model — not yet validated (Phase 2 blocks any promotion beyond VALIDATED).
ml_agentNOT CONFIGURED
ApplicableNo
DirectionNo trade
Strength0.000
Advisory onlyNo
Reasons
- No trained/validated ML model configured at this phase.